Dems In Deep Trouble

( – Navigating dark waters within their own party, Democrats are in deep trouble as they face a tough battle to keep Senate control this November.

For the moment, Democrats have a slim 51-49 Senate majority, counting the four independents who caucus with them. To hold onto the Senate, they can only afford to lose two seats (or one if they keep the White House).

Even though defending this narrow majority is difficult, it is even tougher because of which Senators are up for reelection. Of the thirty-four seats in play, only eleven are held by Republicans. This leaves Democrats defending more than double the seats compared to Republicans.

Making things worse, while many of these Democratic seats are in swing states or solid Republican areas, Democrats are defending seats in seven states that former President Donald Trump won in 2016, and two states Clinton won by less than 3%.

Of the eleven Republican-held seats, nine are considered “safe.” This means these seats are expected to stay Republican unless something very unexpected happens.

Moreover, Republicans also have a “safe” flip from Democrats in West Virginia, as incumbent Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat turned independent, is retiring.

For instance, Rick Scott is defending his seat in Florida, a state that has been leaning more Republican in recent years.

In Minnesota, former presidential candidate Amy Klobuchar is expected to defend her seat, likely against banker Joe Fraser. Despite Minnesota’s recent tighter presidential races, Klobuchar is a strong incumbent and is expected to win, though surprises can happen in a state Clinton won by less than 3%.

Likewise, the real battlegrounds are in “Lean” states, where one party has a clear but not secure advantage. Three key swing states are categorized as “Leaning Democrat.”

In Arizona, Democratic Representative Reuben Gallego is leading Republican Kari Lake by 6.6% in the race to replace Independent Kyrsten Sinema.

Montana’s moderate Democrat Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term, facing retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy. Despite Montana’s Republican lean, Tester leads Sheehy by 5.5%, making it a tossup.

This leaves the Senate battleground at 50 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 4 tossups, meaning Republicans are close to gaining control either through a Trump victory or winning a tossup state.

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