Trump Up; Biden Down

( – Since the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, recent polls suggest Trump has more than doubled his lead over the Democrat in the 2024 race.

Biden’s lackluster performance triggered significant issues for Democrats, leading to chaos within the party and calls to replace Biden as the nominee. Meanwhile, Trump’s appeal among voters nationwide seems to have grown.

A Democracy Corps study conducted before and after the debate revealed a sharp drop in Biden’s support, particularly among key Democratic voting blocs like black, Hispanic, and third-party voters.

Post-debate data from five national surveys show Trump’s lead over Biden increasing from an average of 1.5 points to 3.2 points.

Just a day after the debate, CBS/YouGov released a poll indicating that 72% of Americans now doubt Biden’s mental or cognitive fitness for a second term, a jump of approximately seven points from their June survey.

In turn, Pollster Nate Silver commented on the presidential candidates’ numbers, suggesting that Biden’s support might be deteriorating further due to fallout from the debate, though he noted that data could still change.

According to Silver’s latest figures, Trump leads Biden nationally by about three percentage points, with Trump at 42.7%, Biden at 39.7%, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9.5%.

Therefore, signs of Biden’s declining support among key Democratic voter groups began circulating heavily in May after a New York Times/Siena poll showed Trump and Biden nearly tied among voters aged 18 to 29 and Hispanic voters, despite Biden securing 60% of their vote in 2020.

Moreover, the poll indicated Trump had gained ground among black voters, potentially reaching nearly 20% support, marking one of the highest levels for a Republican candidate since the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Amid discussions about replacing Biden as the nominee, an Ipsos poll conducted this week assessed potential Democratic contenders against Trump. The data indicated that former First Lady Michelle Obama was the only Democrat leading Trump by 11 points.

Others, like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, trailed by five points, Kamala Harris by one point, and California Governor Gavin Newsom by three points.

Despite these challenges, Biden and his team remain steadfast in moving forward with his candidacy.

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